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San Diego Real Estate Market Calendar Cycle

San Diego houses are always in demand, but some times are better than others to buy and sell houses in San Diego. No matter what the real estate market conditions, there is a seasonal component to keep in mind. Specifically, the fourth quarter of every year presents the best opportunities to match serious buyers with serious sellers of San Diego real estate.

This graph examines Carmel Valley houses listed and sold in the past three years. Carmel Valley is a popular neighborhood with great schools. Of all the San Diego neighborhoods, sales of homes in Carmel Valley are always in high demand. So as far as seasonality is concerned, Carmel Valley presents a conservative picture of similar phenomena in other Southern California neighborhoods.

San Diego Houses Sold by Quarter

The graph above shows homes sold in Carmel Valley over the past three years. Notice how there is a predictable pattern of fewer sales in the fourth quarter and first quarter of every year. Remember that the sales that close in any given month are contracts that are written 30 to 60 days prior. In other words, and offer that is presented in November will close in December or January. And an offer that is written in December will close in January or February. The graph clearly shows that fewer buyers write contracts in the fourth quarter of every year.

Now look at the number of homes listed for sale in Carmel Valley during the same timeframe:

San Diego Houses Listed For Sale by Quarter

Every year, the majority of sellers list their homes for sale in Carmel Valley during the first and second quarter. The fewest homes are listed for sale during the fourth quarter.

So as a Seller, when is the best time to sell a home in San Diego? It may be counter-intuitive, but the fact is that you’re better off selling in the Fall and Winter. Waiting until Spring means that your home will face stiff competition from similar homes listed for sale in the area. During the Fall, a house that is in good condition will immediately attract attention from serious buyers. With fewer homes on the market, your home will be more likely to stand out.

And if you are considering buying a home in San Diego, when is the best time to buy? The statistics show that fewer buyers are competing to buy homes during the fourth quarter. With less competition, it is easier to find homes and actually make a purchase. Buying a home in the Spring and Summer is loaded with frustration because everyone and their brother is looking to buy a house at that same time. Less competition means better opportunity to succeed with your goal of home ownership.

Copyright © By Geoffrey Schiering 2010*Best Time To Sell and Buy San Diego Houses*

28 Responses

  1. Pingback: Tweets that mention Best Time To Sell and Buy San Diego Houses | San Diego Real Estate --
  2. Nice analysis of the San Diego market that gives valuable insight for prospective buyers and sellers. Do graphs of other San Diego areas mirror the same characteristics so clearly? Thank you.
    .-= Rodney Ash´s last blog ..Four Tips to Keep You Focused on Your Dream of Building a New Home =-.

  3. Great analysis. Is that part of your listing presentation? If not, it should be. So many agents have no idea of the natural market cycle for their region. Our market almost exactly mirrors yours. The end of the second quarter starts the busiest time of year for us. That, and around Christmas through New Year’s can get busy as well.

  4. Thanks for this information. Do you know if there are any laws, or logistics involved in buying property in San Diego from outside of the United States. We’re based in Melbourne, Australia. Are there restrictions on obtaining mortgages in the US for foreigners. I can imagine that with the dollar going down, that overseas investors might be able to save the local housing market, or at the very least help to stabilize it a bit, not sure…

    1. There are no restrictions on non-U.S. citizens buying real estate in the United States. But obtaining a home mortgage loan from a U.S. bank is more difficult. There are local lenders who will give mortgage loans to Australians in the United States, but larger down payments are required, and the non-U.S. citizen typically needs to establish credit in the United States through credit cards or other means. Without a U.S. credit score, most lenders won’t give a loan.

  5. A great analysis you have put together here. Too bad that only a few realtors are actually doing things like this.

    all the best,
    .-= Jonas´s last blog ..King Arthur and the Knights of the Round Table- The truth behind the legend! =-.

  6. That first quarter trend is very interesting. Thanks for bringing that to my attention. It sounds like you understand the pulse of the market. That can be very powerful.

  7. I was doing some research and came across this site. Must say that this information is what I was searching for! Keep up the good info. I just Saved as a favorite, Hope that you’ll come up with additional stuff such as that.

  8. Whoa! That’s definitely a nice analysis. According to graph Q2 and Q3 are probably ideal periods for sellers who get best price while Q1 and Q4 are best for buyers for good deals.

  9. Thanks for giving us a clear graph of San Diego’s sold properties. Lots in Carmel Valley are in demand because of great schools that surrounds in it. Now I know where to find a place to build a house. It is indeed a great property to have. And I now know the best season to buy. Less competition means higher possibility of owning a property.

  10. I wish I could afford a house in Carmel Valley! It’s a wonderful place! Someday I believe I’ll be able to buy one. After reading your article I know when the best season for buying is. Thanks!

  11. Nice analysis of the San Diego market that gives valuable insight for prospective buyers and sellers. I just Saved as a favorite, Hope that you’ll come up with additional stuff such as that. Thank you.

  12. Insightful analysis. This is a unique perspective stating the 4th quarter (which is undeniably slow) is the best time to buy or sell your home due to the lack of competetion. However, I slightly disagree with you on this, since we all know that a slow market means a limited supply and/or demand. Trying to take advantage of the sluggish period in the 4th quarter (for example as a seller) would just mean that you might have to see your house listed for a longer period of time due to the lack of buyers, and vice versa. Your perspective is however fresh and thoughtprovoking, and I really enjoyed reading this.

  13. Thanks for the analysis. Anything to get buyers off the fence in a slow market. Also in the winter months sellers are more likely to make concessions. Easier to get a better deal when it is cold a dreary outside than a spring day.

  14. What makes the fall and winter the best times to sell properties in San Diego? We generally don’t take the time of year in to consideration, but lots of our listings are houses to rent in Runcorn. Excellent article by the way Geoffrey, definitely worth a read.

  15. Thanks a bunch for sharing this with all of us you
    actually understand what you’re talking about! Bookmarked. Kindly also consult with my website =). We will have a link exchange contract between us

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